The impact of possible climate changes on developing countries

Editorial Some authorities interpret measured increases in global temperatures as indicating an approaching major change in climate around the world although there is argument about both the extent and the origin of the phenomenon as well as its climatic implications. While in some quarters the carbon dioxide generated by human activities is regarded as the major driver of global temperature increases, others contest that view. It is not our purpose here to take sides in this conflict of ideas but rather to explore the consequences of postulated climate change were they to occur to a serious degree. If the world's climate is not changing significantly, there is nothing special for us to write about under this heading. But suppose it is: what are likely to be the consequences for agriculture and for our food supplies , both in general and in detail? In addition to the heating effect itself on biological systems, increasing global temperatures, should they occur, are likely to have significant impacts in the coming decades through changes in rainfall, wind speeds, reduced cover of snow, reduced incidence of frosts, length of growing season, and, perhaps, the timing of extreme and critical threshold events relative to crop development. 1 If some or all of these effects were indeed to occur we might expect major consequences for agriculture, fishing, and other aspects of our food supply. One consequence, in particular, might well be a rise in seawater level which would have serious implications for countries whose lands are at elevations close to sea level. Among the regions most threatened by a rise in sea levels are the old deltas where agriculture first started, leading to loss of land and migration of the people living there to higher and safer lands. In Egypt, if the sea level were to rise 50 cm nearly 1800 km of the north coast and the Nile delta would be inundated by seawater with major effects on the lives of about 3.8 million people. 2 With climate change, the expected drought, salinity and floods would invariably have grave implications on crop production and, hence, on food security , possibly resulting in acute food shortages locally and even globally. Producing enough food for a rapidly growing population under extreme and changing weather conditions would be a major challenge, especially as there are few or no remaining redundant water resources and arable lands to be brought into …